Tomorrow night at the Sphere in Las Vegas, Nevada, Sean O’Malley will defend his Bantamweight Championship against Merab Dvalishvili in the main event of UFC 306.
O’Malley won the title by delivering a TKO to Aljamain Sterling at UFC 294 in August 2023. Since then, he’s defended the strap once, beating Marlon Vera by a unanimous decision at UFC 299 in March of this year.
What’s significant about the Vera win is that it avenges the only loss of O’Malley’s career. While his record is not unblemished, all fighters faced can now be considered conquered.
Merab Dvalishvili has suffered four defeats during his decade-long career in MMA. However, since September 2018, He has been untouchable, reeling off ten wins in a row and climbing to an overall record of 17-4.
Online sportsbooks are currently favoring the champion to retain, but the moneyline odds to win are only separated by 40 points.
Sean O’Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili Betting Line
- Point Spread*: O’Malley -5.5 (+120), Dvalishvili +5.5 (-155)
- Moneyline Odds To Win The Match: O’Malley -130, Dvalishvili +110
- Over: 4.5 (-135)
- Under: 4.5 (+105)
*The point spread is attributed to the total points awarded on the judge’s scorecards. If a fighter wins during regulation, a point spread bet on them will also be graded a winner.
Most of O’Malley’s wins have come by knocking out his opponent. Over Dvalishvili’s hot streak, he has won all but one of those fights via decision.
As such, the UFC prop bets for the method of victory favor an O’Malley knockout win and a Dvalishvili victory by decision as the two most likely outcomes tomorrow night.
Method of Victory Props
- Sean O’Malley Wins Inside Distance +145
- Merab Dvalishvili Wins by Decision or Technical Decision +165
- Sean O’Malley Wins by Decision or Technical Decision +425
- Merab Dvalishvili Wins Inside Distance +575
- Draw or Technical Draw +8000
Here is another MMA prop that pays out for correct picks on how the fight will end, regardless of which combatant is victorious. Significant payouts are being offered for a submission win, awarding $10 for each $1 risked.
How Will The Fight End?
- KO/TKO/DQ +105
- Decision -115
- Submission +1000
O’Malley is an Arizona native who is 29 years old, four years younger than Dvalishvili. Sean also stands 5″ taller than Merab, with a reach advantage that will aid his ability to connect on a knockout blow.
Dvalishvili does possess more power and the ability to hurt O’Malley on fewer strikes. Still, Dvalishvili hasn’t displayed that power in recent fights and will struggle to out-point O’Malley.
18-friendly online betting sites are offering lines on the entire card for UFC 306 now.