Before we get into our NFL betting picks for Week 5, we wanted to mention a few franchises we’re currently staying away from. The following teams are too unpredictable after four weeks and throw off any betting formulas we try to apply.
- Atlanta Falcons—The Falcons seem to play everyone close as they develop under Kirk Cousins’ leadership, regardless of who the opponent is.
- Buffalo Bills – The Bills are their usual dominant selves but their surprise blowout loss to the Ravens and their close game with the Cardinals keep us guessing.
- Baltimore Ravens – Baltimore’s loss to the Las Vegas Raiders has us holding off until more evidence can be collected.
- Cincinnati Bengals—The Bengals appear to be the same squad that recently made it to the Super Bowl, but they’re losing games they shouldn’t.
- New York Jets – NY seems to be on the right track under Aaron Rodgers, but their 10-9 loss to the Broncos last week has us reevaluating everything regarding the Jets.
Carolina Panthers vs. Chicago Bears
- Panthers Point Spread: +4.0 (-115)
- Panthers Moneyline: +170
- Bears Point Spread: -4.0 (-105)
- Bears Moneyline: -200
- Over: 40.5 (-115)
- Under: 40.5 (-105)
It seems that online sportsbooks may have forgotten how potent the Carolina Panthers offense has become now that Andy Dalton has been named the starting quarterback.
Chicago is trending upward as a franchise, but their offense has issues placing points on the scoreboard. The Bears have only topped 20 points twice this year.
Carolina has scored 36 and 24 points in the two weeks with Dalton under center. We’re betting on the Panthers to cover the 4 points, but we think they have a great shot at winning on the road in Illinois.
Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots
- Dolphins Point Spread: +1.0 (-110)
- Dolphins Moneyline: -105
- Patriots Point Spread: -1.0 (-110)
- Patriots Moneyline: -115
- Over: 36.5 (-110)
- Under: 36.5 (-110)
The importance of Tua Tagovailoa should be evident to Dolphins fans at this point, as Miami can’t muster up any offense even with Tyreek Hill, De’Von Achane, and Jaylen Waddle on the offense.
We expect New England head coach Jerod Mayo to devise a solid defensive scheme against Miami that will keep their point output lower than what the Patriots can produce.
A bet on the Patriots to cover the 1-point spread is also a wager on a straightforward win, so players can opt for whichever set of odds is more profitable for their gambling dollar.
Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
- Colts Point Spread: +3.0 (-115)
- Colts Moneyline: +135
- Jaguars Point Spread: -3.0 (-105)
- Jaguars Moneyline: -160
- Over: 46.5 (-110)
- Under: 46.5 (-110)
At first, we were hesitant to bet money on this game due to the uncertain status of Indianapolis Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson. After further consideration, we’re comfortable betting on the Colts to cover the 3-point spread because we believe they’re going to win the game no matter who starts at QB.
If Richardson suits up on Sunday, we may wager on the Colts moneyline odds of +135 at another book, but we’ve already laid some action on Indianapolis covering the 3 against the Jaguars on the road in Florida.